J. Stöterau

"Understanding what works to improve youth labour market outcomes is of paramount importance and a development priority for all countries and regions. Youth represent a vast potential for inclusive growth and development. If they are given the opportunity to build appropriate skills and access decent employment, they can help to accelerate progress on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and engage in meaningful work that benefits them, their families and society as a whole. Unfortunately, decent jobs are not a feasible prospect for all young women and men. Today, over 73 million young people are unemployed worldwide. Youth unemployment stands at a much higher level than the average unemployment rate for adults, in some cases over three times as high. Moreover, two out of five young people in the labour force are either working but poor or unemployed. The youth employment challenge is therefore not only about job creation, but also - and especially - about enhancing the quality of jobs for youth."

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"This paper summarizes the key features of a systematic framework for assessing the aggregate employment impacts of a portfolio of development cooperation interventions. The methodological approach follows a bottom-up procedure based on three steps: (i) estimating employment effects at the intervention level, net of the counterfactual scenario; (ii) estimating (economy-wide) employment impacts of interventions taking into account employment-related indirect effects of the intervention such as displacement, substitution and multipliers; (iii) aggregating these employment impacts across the portfolio and deriving comparable parameter values for employment effects. We discuss these steps, along with two preparatory steps that enable an identification of projects for which a detailed evaluation may be most relevant and feasible. To this end, we develop a classification of intervention types from an employment perspective and propose an approach to judge their availability ex-ante. Finally, we discuss how these bottom-up estimates can feed into a system of institutional learning about employment impacts, based on the specification of an indicator for employment outcomes that can be compared and aggregate across heterogeneous development projects. The paper is based on an exploratory study conducted for German development cooperation; hence there is a necessary focus on a framework applicable in this specific context."

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